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The Effect of the Two Comparative Implementation Policies on the Rise of Central China

【Authors】
LU Fei, SUN Yuanyuan & LIU Minghui
【WorkUnit】
LU Fei, SUN Yuanyuan (Wuhan University, 430072)LIU Minghui (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 611130)
【Abstract】

Based on theoretical analysis and PSM-DID method, this paper evaluates the effect of the two comparative implementation policies. The part of theoretical analysis introduces policy intervention into the CES production function and obtains the analysis framework with the basic path relying on factors supply and quality and efficiency improvement, then puts forward the hypothesis in light of the development plan of Central China. Empirical analysis finds that the Comparative Implementation of the Northeastern Rejuvenation Policy has a time lag, but still has significant effect on increasing the economic scale of the treated group compared with the control group, and has basically achieved the strategic goal of building “three bases and one hub”. However, the policy has no obvious effect on economic transformation or quality and performance improvement of the treated group. The evaluation of the Comparative Implementation of the Western Development Policy shows that all the strategic priorities are basically implemented, but there is no “net effect” on the county-level economic scale or development level. Moreover, the two comparative implementation policies have led to the decline in the economic scale of agricultural production areas and in workers' wages citywide and farmers' income countywide, with limited effects on boosting regional soft power. They might trigger the flypaper effect at the county level and cause private capital to be squeezed out by government investment, which deserves proper attention in the process of building “one center and four zones”.


JEL:E61, O18, O21

【KeyWords】
Two Comparative Implementation Policies, Rise of Central China, Quasi-Natural Experiment, PSM-DID