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Features and Influence Factors of Inter-provincial Trade Network in China——An Analysis Based on Railway Freight Flow Data and Exponential Random Graph Models

【Authors】
HOU Chuanlu, QIN Chenglin
【WorkUnit】
Jinan University, 510632.
【Abstract】

Inter-provincial trade has an important impact on China’s response to uncertain risks in international trade, especially the impact of Sino-US trade frictions, and the promotion of national economic growth. However, the research on inter provincial trade networks is scarce. From the perspective of network analysis, this paper first analyzes the characteristics of China’s inter-provincial trade network by using the 2015 inter-provincial railway freight volume data, and then exploits the exponential stochastic graph model to analyze the influencing factors of inter-provincial trade network. The results indicate that the inter-provincial trade network covers a wide range and has obvious hierarchical differentiation, and the inter-provincial trade flows and scale are unbalanced. In the inter-provincial trade network, there are already the North China and Northeast China sub-networks, East and Central China sub-networks, South and Southwest sub-networks, and Northwest China sub-network. The intra-provincial trade, coal production, four-regional strategies, and the spatial distance between provinces have different impacts on the inter-provincial trade network. Therefore, we should make good use of the positive factors, control the negative factors, promote the development of inter-provincial trade network, and help enhance the endogenous impetus of economic development and achieve high-quality development.

JEL:F13, F14

【KeyWords】
Interprovincial Trade, Trade Network, Exponential Random Graph Models