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Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Lukewarm Response to “Two-Child” Policy

【Authors】
JIN Weidong, GONG Jiejing & MAO Zhonggen
【WorkUnit】
JIN Weidong (Shandong University of Finance and Economics, 250014)
GONG Jiejing (Shandong University of Finance and Economics, 250014)
MAO Zhonggen (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 611130)
【Abstract】

Recently, the policy which relaxes population control has obviously received a lukewarm response, and China's population growth is facing a huge risk of “cliff-like drop”. Using text analysis and quasiexperimental method, this paper theoretically and empirically demonstrates the changes in the cost of raising children in urban and rural areas and the influence on the birth rate, and then on the effect of “two-child” policy. The results show that in recent years, as the cost of raising children changes, the rural families' desire for procreation has been greatly reduced, while that of urban families has increased slightly, a decline on the whole when the two are combined. At the same time, the actual birth rate is much lower than the willingness to multiply, therefore, the “two-child” policy fails to achieve ideal results The key to the future population policy reform in China is to draw lessons from the historical experience of developed countries, and eliminate the adverse effects of changes in costs of raising children through incentive measures

JEL:C21, J13, J18

【KeyWords】
Fertility Policy, Fertility Cost, Text Analysis, Quas-Experimental Analysis