China's Inter-provincial Trade Evolution and Flow Direction Reshaping under Belt and Road Initiative
- SUN Jun, GAO Yanyan & XUAN Changyong
SUN Jun（Huaihai Institute of Technology, 222005）
GAO Yanyan（Southeast University, 211189）
XUAN Changyong（Huaihai Institute of Technology, 222005）
The Belt and Road Initiative（BRI） provides not only space for a new round of opening-up in China，but also new ideas for coordinated development between regions and the construction of NVC，where interprovincial trade is a key factor. Using the gravity model to study the inter-provincial trade flow between 2008 and 2016，we summarize the evolution patterns of interprovincial trade，analyze the spatial flow of inter-provincial trade and the impact of BRI on inter-provincial trade flow. The main conclusions are as follows: （1）The price scissors continue to expand among inter-provincial trade，GDP and international trade, and the role of inter-provincial trade in economic growth is increasing over time.（2）International trade surplus gradually spreads from the east to the middle and the west where inter-provincial trade deficit expands as international trade surplus emerges or trade deficit narrows.（3）The intra-regional trade is the main part of inter-provincial trade, and its share has been increasing in all regions except for the Yangtze River Delta. The proportion of trade among coastal areas is basically decreasing，while the inter-provincial trade to the central and western regions is increasing, and the inter-provincial trade to northeast China is decreasing.（4）The flow of inter-provincial trade is in line with the spatial distribution of trade proposed by BRI，indicating that BRI reshapes China's regional economy by switching the traditionally dominant north-south trade to balanced development of north-south and west-east trade. This paper provides a theoretical basis for understanding the effects of BRI on the dynamics of inter-provincial trade.
Inter-provincial Trade，Belt and Road Initiative，Gravity Model，Flow Direction Change