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China's Inter-provincial Trade Evolution and Flow Direction Reshaping under Belt and Road Initiative

【Authors】
SUN Jun, GAO Yanyan & XUAN Changyong
【WorkUnit】
SUN Jun(Huaihai Institute of Technology, 222005)
GAO Yanyan(Southeast University, 211189)
XUAN Changyong(Huaihai Institute of Technology, 222005)
【Abstract】

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) provides not only space for a new round of opening-up in China,but also new ideas for coordinated development between regions and the construction of NVC,where interprovincial trade is a key factor. Using the gravity model to study the inter-provincial trade flow between 2008 and 2016,we summarize the evolution patterns of interprovincial trade,analyze the spatial flow of inter-provincial trade and the impact of BRI on inter-provincial trade flow. The main conclusions are as follows: (1)The price scissors continue to expand among inter-provincial trade,GDP and international trade, and the role of inter-provincial trade in economic growth is increasing over time.(2)International trade surplus gradually spreads from the east to the middle and the west where inter-provincial trade deficit expands as international trade surplus emerges or trade deficit narrows.(3)The intra-regional trade is the main part of inter-provincial trade, and its share has been increasing in all regions except for the Yangtze River Delta. The proportion of trade among coastal areas is basically decreasing,while the inter-provincial trade to the central and western regions is increasing, and the inter-provincial trade to northeast China is decreasing.(4)The flow of inter-provincial trade is in line with the spatial distribution of trade proposed by BRI,indicating that BRI reshapes China's regional economy by switching the traditionally dominant north-south trade to balanced development of north-south and west-east trade. This paper provides a theoretical basis for understanding the effects of BRI on the dynamics of inter-provincial trade.
 
JEL:E61,R41

【KeyWords】

Inter-provincial Trade,Belt and Road Initiative,Gravity Model,Flow Direction Change