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Shanty Towns Rebuilding, Unconventional Monetary Policy and Housing Prices

【Authors】
CHEN Changshi, LIU Chenhui
【WorkUnit】
Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 116025.
【Abstract】

Based on data from January 2002 to March 2018, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism and influence of unconventional monetary policy on housing prices by using the TVP-SVAR model against the background of shanty town rebuilding. The study shows that the policy effect on housing prices of quantitative tools of conventional monetary policy has largely lapsed, while pledged supplementary lending of unconventional monetary policy has gradually replaced M2 as the main monetary policy. In terms of policy effect, pledged supplementary lending will only lead to short-term increases in housing prices, and has little effect on long-term housing prices. From the perspective of the impact mechanism, pledged supplementary lending can not only directly affect housing prices, but also has an indirect effect on housing prices by lowering real interest rates. In terms of city types, the impact of pledged supplementary lending on big cities is non-structural, but its impact on medium-sized cities is structural, which means that the medium-sized cities contains a greater risk of housing price fluctuations against the background of shanty town rebuilding. The research deepens the understanding of the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and housing prices, and provides useful policy inspirations for shanty town rebuilding and maintaining stable and healthy development of real estate market.

JEL:E52, R31, R28

【KeyWords】
Shanty Towns Rebuilding, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Housing Prices, TVP-SVAR Model