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A Study on the Relocation of Chinese Manufacturing Industry under the Adjustment of Global Industrial Division

【Authors】
HU Guoliang & WANG Jiyuan
【WorkUnit】
HU Guoliang (Sinounited Investment Group Corporation Limited,100078)WANG Jiyuan (Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research,100040)
【Abstract】

Based on the International Input-output Model and WIOD data in 2014,this paper quantitatively estimates the impact of manufacturing transfer on China's GDP and industrial structure from three technological categories,two stages and three channels. This paper finds that: (1) China's exports to the United States are mainly high-tech products,and the high-tech manufacturing industry is greatly constrained by the United States,which deserves priority attention; (2) Manufacturing industry transfer has an impact through three channels: direct effect,correlation effect and spillover effect,and the direct effect is the main channel in the short term,but in the long term,the spillover effect is the main factor causing inter-industry differences; (3) In the short run,the transfer of low-tech manufacturing industry has the greatest impact on domestic GDP,while in the long run,the transfer of medium-and high-tech manufacturing industry will have a greater impact and be more unfavorable to the upgrading of domestic industrial structure. In order to mitigate the impact of industry transfer,this paper suggests that different policies should be adopted for different types of manufacturing industries,with special emphasis on strengthening the dominance and irreplaceability of high-tech manufacturing industry in the industrial chain.

 

JEL:F22,D57

【KeyWords】
Industry Transfer,Manufacturing Industry Transfer,industrial chain,Industrial Structure