Calculation and Distribution of Carbon Welfare Embodied in China-US Bilateral Industrial Trade in Value Added
- LI Zhen, CHEN Tianming
- East China Normal University, 200062.
Modern trade pattern not only reflects the GVC distribution of trade benefits, but also brings about pollutant emissions distribution embodied in trade value in the global trade network. Combining the method of GVA decomposition with MRIO model, this paper evaluates the carbon welfare in the China-US bilateral industrial trade from 2000 to 2014, and furthermore makes an in-depth analysis on the responsibility identification of bilateral trade carbon emissions, carbon welfare change mechanism and the influence of China-US trade friction. The results show that: China got the deficit of carbon welfare embodied in China-US bilateral industrial trade, while the United States got the surplus. The carbon welfare gap between China and the United States in industrial trade has first broadened and then narrowed down, and China's deficit in carbon welfare deteriorated after the Subprime Crisis. The declining carbon intensity, higher status on the value chain and expanding imports from the United States all contribute to the improvement of the carbon welfare deficit. But the United States. growing demand for intermediate and final goods from China and the complex technical structure of the bilateral relationship are still the main factors causing China-s carbon welfare deficit. In the situation of unilateral tariff levied, the impact of carbon welfare on China is smaller than that on the United States. In the situation of mutual tariffs levied, tariffs imposition on exporting countries will worsen the trade carbon welfare of the importing countries by reducing the carbon emissions from the consumption side of imports. This provides a new analytical perspective for reappraising the carbon welfare distribution embodied in bilateral trade under the new China-US economic and trade relations, and a new interpretation direction for future bilateral trade negotiations and the determination of global carbon emission responsibility.
JEL：F14, F18, C67
- Bilateral Industrial Trade in Value Added, Decomposition of Trade Value Added, Distribution of Carbon Welfare Embodied in the Trade, Carbon Welfare Gap, Structural Decomposition